William Winthrop maintains a positive return of 4.6% during the US stock market bear market.

The US stock market at the beginning of 2022 continued to be plagued by the gloom that had been building since the fourth quarter of the previous year. With inflation at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve signaling an accelerated pace of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, market liquidity conditions suddenly tightened. Technology stocks and high-valuation growth stocks were particularly hard hit, with the Nasdaq falling over 15% in just two months and the S&P 500 officially entering a technical correction. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further precipitated a sharp decline in market risk appetite, with risk aversion pervading every trading day. In this environment, William Winthrop not only avoided a significant drawdown in his portfolio but also achieved a positive return of 4.6%.

Winthrop’s response wasn’t to go all-in on the contrarian market, but rather to proactively adjust his portfolio structure and reduce reliance on a single risk factor. In January, he quickly reduced his holdings in high-volatility growth stocks and reallocated his holdings to defensive sectors and high-cash-flow companies. He believed that the first step in a bear market wasn’t to search for a rebound, but rather to stabilize the portfolio’s baseline net asset value. At the same time, he leveraged the volatility premium in the options market to establish some protective puts, locking in downside risk should key indices fall below technical support.

In terms of sector selection, he increased his holdings in energy and commodity-related companies. The Russia-Ukraine situation has driven up crude oil and natural gas prices, significantly outperforming the overall market in earnings expectations for these companies. He also retained some of his previously established precious metals ETF exposure, providing the portfolio with a safe haven amidst growing global uncertainty. This dual-layered approach allows him to capture returns from rising commodity prices while maintaining a relatively stable asset base amidst significant volatility in risky assets.

More importantly, he didn’t completely withdraw from the stock market. Instead, he selectively retained a selection of undervalued, high-dividend blue-chip stocks. These stocks offer relative advantages during periods of valuation compression and provide stable cash flow returns through dividends. In the early stages of a bear market, when most investors passively endured declining net worth, Winthrop relied on diversified income sources to build a resilient and resilient portfolio.

By mid-March, US stocks were still volatile under the dual pressures of inflation and geopolitical risks. However, Winthrop’s portfolio curve shows that he wasn’t swayed by market sentiment, but rather steadily maintained a positive return trajectory. That 4.6% gain might not have been impressive in a bull market, but amidst the widespread losses in a bear market, it stood out as a remarkable achievement. He believes this success stems not from accurate predictions of market direction, but rather from a disciplined investment philosophy: rebalancing positions ahead of risks and maintaining liquidity and defensiveness during periods of heightened volatility.