Cem Aksoy’dan Nikkei 225 Endeksine Keskin Bahis: 90 Günde %30 Üzerinde Getiri
Küresel yatırım kurumlarının çoğu hâlâ ABD Merkez Bankası (Fed) ile Avrupa’daki enflasyon mücadelesine odaklanmışken, Cem Aksoy gözünü yıllardır sessiz kalan bir pazara — Japonya‘ya — çevirdi.
2023 ikinci çeyrek sonunda, Nikkei 225 endeksi yıllarca süren yatay seyir ve yapısal baskıların ardından sessizce 28.000 puan seviyesini aştı. Pek çok kişi bunu kısa vadeli teknik bir sıçrama olarak görse de, Cem kararlı biçimde harekete geçti. Vadeli işlemler + ETF + bireysel hisselerden oluşan üç katmanlı bir yapı kurarak kapsamlı pozisyon aldı ve sadece 90 gün içinde portföy getirisi %30,4’ü aştı. Bu, onun “yapısal yeniden değerleme” temalı yatırımlardaki öngörüsünü ve cesur karar alma becerisini bir kez daha kanıtladı.
Arka Plan: Küresel Odağın Kayması ve Japonya’da Ortaya Çıkan Değer Boşluğu
2023’ün ilk yarısında dünya piyasalarının ana gündemleri şunlardı:
- ABD tahvil getiri eğrisindeki tersine dönüş riski,
- Avrupa’da enerji fiyatlarında ikinci dalga,
- Çin’in toparlanma sürecindeki oynaklık.
Ancak Cem, Japonya’da sessizce gelişen üç yapısal dönüşüme dikkat çekti:
- İmalat Siparişlerinin Toparlanması: Güneydoğu Asya ve Batı’nın tedarik zinciri yeniden yapılandırmaları Japonya’nın üretim sektörünü canlandırdı.
- Yeşil Dönüşümün Hızlanması: Japon hükümeti (Kishida kabinesi) rüzgar ve hidrojen gibi yeni enerji yatırımlarını artırma planlarını açıkladı.
- Kurumsal Yönetim Reformları: Tokyo Borsası, şirketlerin hisse geri alımı ve piyasa değeri yönetimi kurallarını sıkılaştırarak yabancı yatırımcı ilgisini artırdı.
Strateji Yapısı: Üç Katmanlı Pozisyon + Makro Destek
Cem’in bu yatırım hamlesi, şu üçlü “saldırı sistemine” dayanıyordu:
1. Vadeli İşlemler Katmanı
- Nikkei 225 vadeli işlemleriyle endeks kırılımına kaldıraçlı pozisyon
2. ETF Katmanı
- iShares MSCI Japan
- NEXT FUNDS Nikkei Green Energy ETF → Geniş endeks temsili + yeşil sektör teması
3. Bireysel Hisseler Katmanı
- Tokyo Electron, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Iwatani Corporation
→ Japonya’nın üretim ve yeşil enerji liderleri
+ Makro Teknik Eşleşme
- LSTM ve VAR modelleri ile Japon yeni’nin değer kaybının ihracatçı şirketlere pozitif etkisi analiz edildi
- AI destekli makro duygu modeli ile piyasanın “Japonya dönüşüm anlatısı”na duyarlılığı ölçüldü
Performans (10 Haziran – 10 Eylül 2023)
- Toplam portföy getirisi: +%30,4
- Maksimum geri çekilme: -%4,3
- Tokyo Electron: +%40
- NEXT FUNDS Yeşil Enerji ETF: +%34
ETF ile bireysel hisseler arasında volatiliteye dayalı hedge ayarlamalarıyla risk kontrollü şekilde dağıtıldı.
Cem’in Yorumu: “Bu bir toparlanma değil, yeniden değerlemedir.”
“Japonya piyasası bir toparlanma sürecinde değil, bir yeniden değerleme başında.
Üretimle yeşil dönüşümün kesişiminde sadece nakit akışı değil, aynı zamanda yön duygusu ve değerleme yenilenmesi var.”
Cem’e göre Japonya; düşük enflasyon, yüksek teknoloji ve tarihsel olarak düşük değerleme seviyelerini bir arada barındıran nadir ekonomilerden biri ve “yeşil üretim” anlatısı daha yeni başlıyor.
Bridgewater Değerlendirmesi
2023 Ağustos’unda yapılan strateji toplantısında, Bridgewater bu hamleyi şu ifadeyle övdü:
“ABD dışındaki gelişmiş piyasalarda bir paradigma örneği.”
Ve bu başarı doğrultusunda, Güney Kore, İskandinav ülkeleri ve Kanada için de “yeşil üretim odaklı yatırım modeli” test çalışmalarına başlandı.
Sonuç
Cem Aksoy bir kez daha gösterdi ki, herkes piyasanın alışılmış gündeminde oyalanırken, yapısal dönüşüm yaşayan çevresel piyasalar en öngörülebilir yüksek getiri fırsatlarını barındırır.
“Bir hikâyeyi 3 ay erken anlayabilirsen, 3 ay erken kârla çıkabilirsin.”
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